Probabilistic Thinking

We have a lot of things going on in our lives. Many things can improve our lives but have you thought of that one tool you use daily yet almost never improve or think about deeply?

It’s thinking.

Yes, read that again. It’s thinking. It’s considered subconscious and irrelevant but the perspective and context at which we portray that event obviously helps. Of course, we all know this from psychology or a philosophy called Stoicism.

But today, we aren’t focusing on that aspect of our thinking. We are going to talk about probabilistic thinking.

Thinking in terms of probability is incredibly helpful. Why do you ask? Because it simply portrays the world as a place of accidents of fortune and misfortune.

I am not saying you aren’t a part of the solution or the problem but what I’m saying is that, most of the time it’s not about you or even if it were about you, it’s a minor contribution.

Let’s say taking your car is the best case scenario in terms of probability for safety and thus, survival but as a result of taking the car at that time and circumstance, you have died.

Certainly, in terms of probability it has the highest survival rate but just because a probability is small doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

In fact, taking the motorcycle would have saved you in this particular instance even though it has a lower probability of being alive.

While this sounds incredibly pessimistic since the world is out of our hands, it’s also incredibly relieving with the right context.

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Our Percieved Empathy

Just like the title suggested, it’s about the discrepancy of empathy based on how things are told or seen. For example, why do we take the case of a plane crash so seriously and tragic if it includes only a few hundred people while we neglect and dismiss the case of a year's report of car crashes as normal? Both cases are tragic of course but the empathy levels we show are vastly different. That being said, it would not be wrong to say this is due to the feeling of self-control we have during a car versus the uncontrollable fate of an airplane but I think you get the rough meaning what I mean.

I got this topic today thanks to Sam Harris and Jordan Peterson's debate back in 2018.

While it was released in 2018, I only listened to it in 2022. Of course, it’s still three years from now which is a long time but the reason I am writing this is because I found the concept remarkable back then as well today which is why I’m sharing it here.

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Types of Reasoning

Our thoughts form a conclusion and a conclusion is formed by reasoning. Reasoning enables us to assess a situation and an answer to it.

Despite its importance, we neglect it. We don’t think thoroughly as to why and how we reached a conclusion. By understanding that though, we can change our lives completely. After all, reasoning remains with us from birth till death.

There are three types of reasoning: Deductive, inductive and abductive reasoning.

Deductive Reasoning

Deductive reasoning is the most straightforward one. This is the one we have studied in mathematics at school. It relies on the premises being true and if the premises is true then we can draw a conclusion to be true depending on the situation.

If the question is whether Rahul is a mammal then we can go to our premise that all humans are mammals so we conclude that Rahul is a mammal.

However, it must be noted that in this reasoning we assume that the premise is valid and under such an assumption, we form a conclusion. If the premise is false then the argument may be logically correct but is false and the premise and conclusion cannot be the same since if they were, it would be circular reasoning.

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Benefits of Dopamine Detox

It is interesting to see the world in terms of physiology. What if our mood and thoughts were decided by various biological terms such as dopamine, serotonin or adrenaline?

Today, we are going to explore and hack one such term: dopamine. Without going into the technical details, dopamine is a feel good chemical and also the brain’s reward system. When you experience something pleasurable, your brain releases dopamine which brings satisfaction and motivation to repeat the same behavior.

This is especially triggered when we have a new experience or rather novelty. This is part of the reason why modern gadgets are so addictive though it also should be noted that the anticipation of the reward is more pleasurable than the reward itself. While it may seem counterintuitive, it makes sense from an evolutionary perspective. After all, our ancestors' anticipation of the meat probably is what made them survive and thus us.

That being said, to counter modern day’s dopamine addiction or vicious cycles, we have come up with dopamine detox. Dopamine detox is a clean streak when a person does not engage in modern activities that result in high dopamine spikes. It must be stressed that this has become ever so important now with how multibillion corporations study our psychology and target specifically on how to engage our minds for their profit.

While this is true, it must also be noted that this does not encompass only modern gadgets. This may include old addictions such as alcohol, drugs or even caffeine and sugar. It makes sense to encompass all types of dopamine spiked activities since the brain does not know the difference between video games and alcohol as far as dopamine-related.

Ultimately, the goal is to try to reach the baseline dopamine we usually are programmed to have with basic tasks. Such benefits are overlapped with boredom as well.

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Language is Flawed

Everyday we use language. There’s not a day when we don’t use it. This seems surprisingly perceived as a concept that is fundamental to life such as water and fire although our ancestors did not share the same sentiment (they did not have a system of language as we have. If we go back enough, they probably used murals as language).

While something may have immense benefits to it, there exists none without any trade-offs. If something has an upside, there is surely a downside to it because that’s how reality works. That being said, it is only right to question such an outlandish notion but that’s a topic I will write about another day.

Language is flawed because it cannot convey meaning as we think it does.

Of course, this is not to confuse the nature of language and the varieties of language. My critique is not about English or Japanese but rather general flaws present in every language.

While that’s true, it is interesting to note how a primary language used for decades may impact someone’s disposition. I would not be surprised if people who spoke Japanese their entire lives would have a softer disposition otherwise. However, it would not be wrong to critique this since it may be an aspect of culture more so than the language itself so a good comparison would be one of the same culture yet different languages.

Coming back to the topic, a flaw about language is how certain terms may exist in theory but never in practice. In fact, extremes only serve in theory but not much in practice. Ironically, the word theory and practice are extremes but if we analyze, it is hard to say if they can exist solely as a concept in reality without overlap.

A more easier example would be that of introverts and extroverts. A common extreme but in reality, can someone be an introvert? Because for someone to be hundred percent an introvert, they need to be home all the time but this is obviously not true. It makes sense to characterize it instead as percentages rather than complete introverts or extroverts.

Anyways, language can only express knowledge to its fullest, not experiences since that only be an approximation.

Though, if something cannot be explained in words then the speaker is incompetent language-wise or it is an experience that only can be felt, not told. This is the difference between knowledge and wisdom.

What do I mean? If what you experience can be summarized as words to your friend but can your friend know your experience just by the words? No, they can only overlap and approximate what you mean.

If you saw a specific sunrise during hiking and told it to your friend then he may relate to it if he has seen a sunrise but even then, your entire image of sunrise is very different from what he may have experienced in a sunrise because both are different sunrises.

That being said, this example is one where he knows or experienced the experience but what if he doesn’t know it? What if your friend never saw a desert but you described one. Can he experience the desert? Not really.

An experience can never be described but only experienced as obvious as it sounds yet we often make the mistake of equalizing the two. Of course, if we had a comparable example of the experience itself then it may prove to be true to some extent but this is only a smart guess we make.

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