Probabilistic Thinking

We have a lot of things going on in our lives. Many things can improve our lives but have you thought of that one tool you use daily yet almost never improve or think about deeply?

It’s thinking.

Yes, read that again. It’s thinking. It’s considered subconscious and irrelevant but the perspective and context at which we portray that event obviously helps. Of course, we all know this from psychology or a philosophy called Stoicism.

But today, we aren’t focusing on that aspect of our thinking. We are going to talk about probabilistic thinking.

Thinking in terms of probability is incredibly helpful. Why do you ask? Because it simply portrays the world as a place of accidents of fortune and misfortune.

I am not saying you aren’t a part of the solution or the problem but what I’m saying is that, most of the time it’s not about you or even if it were about you, it’s a minor contribution.

Let’s say taking your car is the best case scenario in terms of probability for safety and thus, survival but as a result of taking the car at that time and circumstance, you have died.

Certainly, in terms of probability it has the highest survival rate but just because a probability is small doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

In fact, taking the motorcycle would have saved you in this particular instance even though it has a lower probability of being alive.

While this sounds incredibly pessimistic since the world is out of our hands, it’s also incredibly relieving with the right context.

I mean, think about it. Sometimes in life, in that particular instance, with the knowledge, skills and mindset you had, that was the best you could do. So, instead of looking at the probability choices of some random person, look at your own probability choices and understand that sometimes, this is indeed all that you can do.

The only choice you always have is finding out what’s most probable and optimizing your life around that accordingly.

It might still sound bad but given the current circumstances and tools, probabilistically speaking, this is the max limit and in terms of probability: the best case scenario.

Of course, because of bad luck or rather a multitude of accidental probabilities, this best case scenario might turn into the worst case scenario but it wasn’t your fault at all. You simply chose the right choice for most situations and it is what it is.

You may say, “If I had signs that the car accident would happen then I would drive the motorcycle instead.” But this is false as well since in that situation, motorcycles would instantly become the best case scenario.

The only way you can know if the right choice for most situations is not right is by going back in time from a metaphysical perspective.

Either way, this means that mindset and failure aren’t necessarily correlated which we discussed further here.

Putting this aside, this is famously seen from ‘Sherlock Holmes’. It’s not that Sherlock is right but according to the probabilities present, it is the most likely right option. Such a way of thinking is generally an inductive reasoning.

So how do we develop this for a layman? There is no right or wrong way in this since it cannot be systemized and what cannot be systemized cannot be trained by definition so like art, I would suggest you to simply develop an intuition through reasoning and wisdom (from past experiences) on how to execute the decision.

As a result, you will develop an intuition for the best case scenario in the limited given options.

Ironically enough, this essay reeks of determinism and while it’s perceived as pessimistic generally, I suppose a ray of optimism is found here.

Food for thought.